It’s become almost a cliché to state that the Oscars don’t matter. Every year, the Academy declares their picks of the best and brightest, and the Internet typically responds with scoffing and snark. We mock the bait that gets nominated every year, while bemoaning the snub of worthier films. And the ceremonies themselves are ripe for mockery, with cloying acceptance speeches and unfunny, time-padding skits.
In short, there’s nothing new in saying that the Oscars don’t matter. But I need to introduce that sentiment again to stress that this year, they really don’t matter.
With Hollywood (like everything else) thrown into chaos in 2020, the Best Picture hopefuls were denied wide theatrical release, and had to attract eyeballs on the highly-crowded (and evermore competitive) streaming venues. Other potential Oscar flicks (e.g. Spielberg’s West Side Story remake) have been postponed to another awards season period entirely.
This has resulted in a Best Picture field without a single widely recognizable film in the bunch. A study by researchers at Guts + Data reports that the most well-known BP nominee was only recognizable to 46% of the moviegoing public; half the nominees couldn’t even crack 25%. This is not much of a surprise – most of the films are produced by smaller studios, with few A-list actors and dour tones that likely turn off a lot of casual movie fans.
But it’s an ominous sign for the lynchpin of TV awards shows, which have seen its ratings steadily decline for years. The 2020 Oscars (which honored box-office smashes like 1917 and Joker) scored a historically low 23.6 million viewers; this year’s ceremony will be lucky to garner even half that number.
But while the Academy prepares for the worst, I’m still here to predict the best. The will-wins, the could-wins, the no-chance-in-hells. Predicting the Oscars is a fun little job, especially in crowded categories with an abundance of talent.
As always, what follows are not my personal preferences. They are simply how I think the awards will shake out on Sunday night. And even if I’m wrong, no big deal. It’s not like anyone’s watching, anyhow.
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
the Trial of the Chicago 7
The night’s top award isn’t as competitive as it initially appeared. While none of these films have gained widespread recognition with audiences, some have gained more awards traction than others. Promising Young Woman had its moment in the spotlight, as did the obligatory Old Hollywood pick, Mank (which has ten nominations overall, far more than any other film this year). And Trial of the Chicago 7, despite feeling like a glorified cable TV movie, has some stalwart supporters as well. But in terms of momentum, only one film has had a consistently steady ride, coasting through the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the BAFAs (whatever those are). Chloe Zhao’s latest film is political without being preachy, and its naturalistic feel has struck a chord with voters across Hollywood. The top prize is Nomadland‘s to lose.
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Mank
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Emerald Fennell has already generated a lot of buzz with her debut film, but the Academy seems more likely that the Academy will choose to honor her with a Screenplay win. (The former Killing Eve showrunner has already earned a few writing accolades for Promising Young Woman, including from the Critics’ Choice and the WGA Awards.) This once again puts Zhao in the pole position, as a sort of warm-up for her expected Best Picture win later in the night. Zhao herself is an up-and-coming director as well, with a Marvel film set to premiere later this year, so this is the one time the Academy will get to honor her before she goes “mainstream.” Expect another win for Nomadland here.
Will Win: Chloé Zhao
Could Win: Emerald Fennell
Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States v. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
I promise I’m not being paid to shill for Nomadland here (it’s not even a film I much liked), and this category is certainly more competitive than the prior two. Viola Davis did great work in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (even if she arguably isn’t the prime focus of the film), and Carey Mulligan has earned star momentum of her own. Either one seems like a viable contender. But McDormand has two Oscars under her belt, and her latest performance has earned her a new round of plaudits. I’ll give the presumptive BP frontunner an edge – but this category is basically a tossup.
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Could Win: Viola Davis
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
A talented actor and global star, taken from the world far too soon. Despite some heady competition, there really isn’t much suspense in this category.
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Glenn Close has been nominated for seven Oscars, losing every time, and it doesn’t look like the much-maligned Hillbilly Elegy will be the film that turns the tide (even as her performance was probably the best thing about the film). Olivia Colman is better-positioned, due to her recent win for The Favourite, and there’s a possibility she scores a repeat victory. But the buzziest nominee this year is Youn, who has earned wide plaudits for her work in Minari, and dominated Supporting Actress categories across the industry. An upset is possible, but this one seems like a reasonable bet.
Will Win: Yuh-jung Youn
Could Win: Olivia Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
One of the tougher categories of the evening. Kaluuya comes the closest to being a serious frontrunner, but some of his votes may get siphoned to costar and competitor Stanfield. That could leave an opening for Sacha Baron Cohen, who earned much respect in Hollywood last year by accomplishing the Herculean task of making Rudy Giuliani look bad. Cohen’s performance in Borat is not up for consideration, but it could certainly give a boost to his work in Chicago 7. (And who wouldn’t want to see the Internet’s reaction to that?)
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Could Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Best Animated Feature
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Pixar has had a remarkable run in this category, to the point that a nomination nearly guarantees a win. (The only recent exception was in 2018, when Incredibles 2 lost out to Into the Spider-Verse.) They have two films up for consideration this year, and it’s pretty obvious which one has been garnering more favor across the board. (Hint: It’s the one that managed to compete in other categories this year.) Don’t expect much vote-splitting, even as it would create an opening for the more deserving Wolfwalkers – Soul appears to have captured the voters’ hearts.
Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers
Most Annoying Speech
The one where the guy thanks a bunch of people you’ve never heard of
The one that rambles on forever until the music cuts it off
The political one
The other political one
The one that at first seems non-political but then takes a sudden turn at the end
It’s the Oscars, folks. Whatever surprises may be in store on Sunday night, I can guarantee you that all these speeches will be annoying.
And some quick predictions for some other categories:
Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best International Feature Film: Another Round
Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
Best Original Score: Soul
Best Original Song: “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah
Critically Touched 