Okay, full disclosure: I originally wrote a long introduction to this piece about whether or not we should care about the Emmys this much (we shouldn’t) and what they say about the state of TV at large (very little). But then my dinosaur-age computer blew a fuse and said intro was lost to history. So I’m just going to skip the intro and dive straight into what it says on the tin: Who will win this year’s Emmy awards?
(Also, obligatory reminder that roughly 50% of the money you make from these predictions rightfully belongs to me.)
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul
Bodyguard
Game of Thrones
Killing Eve
Ozark
Pose
Succession
This is Us
Quite a selection, huh? The biggest and most creatively diverse Emmy slate since… well, ever. Too bad only one of these shows has a chance of winning, now that modern voting rules have turned the top categories into a popularity contest.
Will Win: Game of Thrones
Could Win: Literally nothing else
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Barry
Fleabag
The Good Place
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Russian Doll
Schitt’s Creek
Veep
Okay, some actual competition here. Veep was the reigning champ before its hiatus last year, with three wins under its belt. It’s back in the frontrunner spot, its chief rivals being last year’s champ The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and TCA darling Fleabag. Give the edge to Maisel, a candy-colored showbiz series that (as many noted last year) feels lab-engineered to Emmy voters.
Will Win: Veep
Could Win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
Chernobyl
Escape at Dannemora
Fosse/Verdon
Sharp Objects
When They See Us
In less turbulent times, the celebrity-tinged Fosse/Verdon would have a serious shot at the prize. But the #MeToo discussion will probably give Hollywood pause about that series, and many voters will gravitate more to politically resonant shows. Only two miniseries really fit that bill, and Chernobyl has had a more explosive (sorry) effect at last week’s Creative Arts awards.
Will Win: Chernobyl
Could Win: When They See Us
OUTSTANDING DRAMA ACTRESS
Emilia Clark, Game of Thrones
Jodi Comer, Killing Eve
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Laura Lin, Ozark
Mandy Moore, This is Us
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Assuming Oh and Comer split the Killing Eve vote, expect the Thrones name to carry the gold. Otherwise, the more recognizable Eve star has the better shot – after five consecutive losses on Grey’s Anatomy, it’s time to flip the script. And look, House of Cards is still getting nominations! That’s cute.
Will Win: Emilia Clarke
Could Win: Sandra Oh
OUTSTANDING DRAMA ACTOR
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Billy Porter, Pose
Milo Ventimiglia, This is Us
This might be the toughest category to predict this year. Assuming the Thrones fans take a breather, the political weight behind Pose could carry Porter over the finish line. But there are plenty of probable contenders for the award; I’ll give special mention to Brown, since he’s a prior winner.
Will Win: Billy Porter
Could Win: Sterling K. Brown
OUTSTANDING COMEDY ACTRESS
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag
Louis-Dreyfus has won this award for six consecutive years, and there’s little reason to expect she’ll miss the swan song. But if there’s an upset, expect it to come not from last year’s winner (Brosnahan), but Waller-Bridge, whose work on Fleabag – not merely in front of the camera, but behind it as well – was among the most acclaimed of the year.
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Could Win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
OUTSTANDING COMEDY ACTOR
Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Bill Hader, Barry
Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Hader snagged the win last year, and could well manage it again. But this time he faces opposition from the beloved Michael Douglas, whose celebrity power and 2013 Emmy win (for Behind the Candelabra) will certainly attract older voters, who still make up a significant portion of the Emmy bloc.
Will Win: Michael Douglas
Could Win: Bill Hader
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Aunjanue Ellis, When They See Us
Joey King, The Act
Niecy Nash, When They See Us
Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
Limited Series (or Miniseries, or Limited Episodes, or whatever they’re calling it) is a bloc where A-listers thrive, and Emmy voters are all too eager to show it. Among this year’s picks, Williams is a tempting choice, as a celebrity playing another celebrity, but Arquette’s moody performance in Dannemora was among the most acclaimed of the season. Meanwhile, expect Adams to have as much luck with the Emmys as she has with the Oscars. (Sorry, Amy.)
Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Could Win: Michelle Williams
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Mahershala Ali, True Detective
Benicio Del Toro, Escape at Dannemora
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Jared Harris, Chernobyl
Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us
Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon
Awards voters love them some Mahershala Ali (and who can blame them?), and this is yet another time to prove it. Ali just has to pray Chernobyl isn’t gearing up for a sweep.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: Jared Harris
OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE
Black Mirror: Bandersnatch
Brexit: The Uncivil War
Deadwood: The Movie
My Dinner with Herve
King Lear
Black Mirror has taken this category in the past two years, and could be gearing up for a three-peat. But Bandersnatch was far from the show’s most beloved episode, and likely earned the nomination based on the gimmick of its premise. A more likely victor is Deadwood; it’s past time to honor David Milch’s Western masterpiece with a non-technical Emmy.
Will Win: Deadwood: The Movie
Could Win: Black Mirror: Bandersnatch
Other predictions: Outstanding Variety Talk Series and Sketch Series will again go, respectively, to Last Week Tonight and SNL. Outstanding Competition Program will go to The Voice. People from Game of Thrones will win both Drama Supporting Actor awards. The whole show will go on too long and feature a couple of political-ish speeches that Twitter will over-analyze and at least one presenting duo will make us wish the show would go back to having hosts next year and we’ll forget the whole event by Monday evening.
Critically Touched 